The Hegseth + Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
Plus: Trump wants more babies, Americans are sick of hearing about misinformation, and sailors mooned and marooned.
The possibly soon-to-be-defunded NPR has produced a media-dominating scoop that suggests that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth might not be able to handsome-war-hero his way out of this one. After Pete Hegseth’s second Signal chat kerfuffle, NPR reported that Trump was quietly looking for a new leader of the DOD.
Trump? Quietly? I know that’s enough to make you wonder about the scoop’s validity.
HOWEVER, the reporting seems solid, which isn’t to say its predictive powers are absolute. And this is where Heinsberg’s uncertainty principle comes in. The more we get closer to the validity of the story, the more incentive the ultimate decision-maker has to prove the story invalid.
The reporters are Tom Bowman and Quil Lawrence, the latter of whom was cited multiple times by an embattled NPR President trying to avoid funding cuts in front of Congress. As for the NPR’s strategy—good and brave. Keep producing scoops that, while they might anger those who hold the purse strings, will make it seem that any snips come from pique, not principle.
Welcome to the Gist List — a news roundup, interesting things you should know, and my thoughts leading up to today’s podcast episode.
Here’s what’s on my mind:
👶 Trump wants to be the “fertilization president.”
🇨🇦 The great Canadian PM whiplash.
💵 VC stands for Very Cautious.
📰 Misinformation and disinformation are old news.
🚢 Stranded at sea with no way home and no back pay.
The Gist List
White House Assesses Ways to Persuade Women to Have More Children (NYT)
President Trump wants to be the “fertilization president.” Take from that what you will.
The administration is brainstorming ways and accepting proposals to make parenthood more attractive. Ideas include (and keep in mind, there are no bad ideas in brainstorming…):
Reserving 30% of Fulbright scholarships for students who are married or have kids.
$5,000 cash “baby bonus.”
A “National Medal of Motherhood” for women who have six or more children.
Teaching women to track their periods.
What many of the voices on the left and the right (although the conversation tends to skew right) might be missing is that it’s not a policy issue at all. While some countries have been paying people to have babies, their population is still falling below the replacement rate. But if tariffs don’t cause the price of a nice night out and bottle of wine to soar, maybe we’ll see more babies in the future.
How Canada’s Trump-Style Candidate Blew a 20-Point Polling Lead (WSJ)
After Trudeau’s fall from grace after… well, everything from his handling of Covid to his handling of state funds, to all the black face in the 90s followed by pandering in the 2020’s, conservatives had the perfect opportunity to dominate Canadian politics. Pierre Poilievre struck the perfect tone for frustrated Canadians: right of center, somewhat populist, and completely different from Trudeau.
But then Trump, being Trump—and by that I mean being as under-control beaver in a discount furniture warehouse—decided to float the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state.
The Trump-aligned candidate has since been doing damage control, going from a 20-point lead to being five points behind the Liberal Party leader and Trudeau heir apparent, Mark Carney.
Investors Worry Trump’s Tariffs Could Cause a ‘World of Hurt’ for Startups (Wired) 🔒
VC stands for Very Cautious, as the looming threat of tariffs is slowing down growth and investments. VCs are treating hardware startups like they're radioactive, and who can blame them? Many are staying away from any hardware companies that are likely to get hit pretty hard (if not completely go under) if Trump gets his way.
Small tech startups aren’t the only ones worried about the future, the lack of economic certainty has caused Amazon to delay leasing new data centers. Move fast and break things? In this economy?
America's fact fight fades (Axios)
Misinformation and disinformation are no longer front-page news. Or is that what Cozy Bear wants you to believe?!?! Or, maybe news organizations overplayed their hand. Maybe it’s because everyone was way too quick to politicize and label news they didn’t like as mis or disinformation. Whatever happened, it has quickly become a boy-who-cried-wolf scenario, and we have finally reached peak mis-/dis-info fatigue.
Even more interesting is what it is doing to the right and the left. A YouGov poll found that 44% of Americans are likely to trust information coming from the Trump administration "a great deal" to "a fair amount,” compared to 28% for the traditional news media. Meanwhile, Democrats have done a spectacular 180° on government regulation of online falsehoods, dropping from 70% support in 2023 to 58% now.
Indian Crew Stranded Without Pay Calls Renewed Attention to Abandonment (The Maritime Executive)
One thing you probably don’t spend tons of time thinking about is what happens when a shipowner just decides it doesn’t want to pay to send its crew home. Well, I do. Crew abandonment is a big issue. It happens when the owner simply ditches the cruise in a port after they're done with it. Last year, the world saw record levels of abandonment with an 87% spike compared to 2023.
The International Shipping Federation keeps a list of the abandoned, and you won't believe how long it is.
Yesterday on the show: Tariffs and Trade
I spoke with Professor Michael Harte talks tariffs and trade and reflects on his time as chief economics advisor (not minister) to the Falkland Islands—a country with more sheep than people. And infinitely more fish than sheep.
There’s more where that came from. Listen to The Gist, and upgrade to Pesca Plus for the ad-free version.
Have a story you want us to talk about or an opinion you want to share? Email us at thegist@mikepesca.com or share your thoughts in the comments. We might give you a shoutout in our next newsletter or on the air.