Affirmative Action Ruling Doesn't Change Much
Though dueling NY Times' Charts Give Vastly Different Impressions
The New York Times recently examined the effects of the Supreme Court’s affirmative action ruling by analyzing admissions data from 59 top colleges. Contrary to predictions of a dramatic shift, the racial composition of these schools remained nearly unchanged. Black and Hispanic enrollment each declined by just 1%, Asian enrollment remained flat, and white enrollment ticked up slightly from 50% to 51%. While individual schools saw more pronounced shifts—such as a 7% increase in Asian students at Carnegie Mellon and an 18% jump at Johns Hopkins—the overall picture does not reflect the seismic change many anticipated. Yet, the Times' framing emphasized the minor declines in Black and Hispanic enrollment:
At the same time the paper played an almost identical statistical move among whites and Asians as not being comparable
Beyond the words The Times’ visual presentation of the data varied significantly between print and online formats. In print, a steep drop in white enrollment from 2010 to 2023 was depicted as a dramatic cliff.
AHHHHRRGGHH!📉
But online, the same decline was stretched into a much gentler slope. While this may have been an innocent formatting choice, it underscores how presentation shapes perception. The broader reality is that while affirmative action contributed to diversifying elite institutions, its removal has not triggered the dramatic upheaval many feared. Rather than alarmism, the data suggests a system where demographic trends, socioeconomic shifts, and institutional priorities continue to evolve—without the need for exaggerated interpretations.
Here is a side by side:
In The Spiel, Mike argues that a more accurate description of the statistics and trends would be: “Minimal Impact After Much-Fretted-Over Affirmative Action Ruling.” Watch:
Addendum: Here are the statistics of the percentage of babies born in the United States to non-Hispanic white mothers in the years that would populate the incoming Freshmen classes documented in the Times’ charts.
